Q4 2025, Advance Estimate | Released February 20, 2026


+1.42 percent
Change in real GDP
Q3 2025 to Q4 2025, annualized
+5.14 percent
Change in current-dollar GDP
Q3 2025 to Q4 2025, annualized
$31.490T
Current-dollar GDP
Q4 2025


From Q3 2025 to Q4 2025:

  • Real GDP increased by 1.42 percent annualized.
  • Current-dollar nominal GDP increased by 5.14 percent annualized, or $392.043 billion, to a level of $31.490 trillion, the current size of the U.S. economy.




Table 1. Gross domestic product

Q4 2025 Q3 2025 Chg. from Q3 2025 Q4 2024 Chg. from Q4 2024
Size of the U.S. Economy
Nominal GDP $31,490.1B $31,098.0B $392.0B $29,825.2B $1,664.9B
Real GDP $24,111.8B $24,026.8B $85.0B $23,586.5B $525.3B


Table 2. Contributions to real gross domestic product growth

Q4 2025 Q3 2025 Chg. from Q3 2025
Quarterly growth rate, annualized (pp)
Nominal GDP 5.1 8.3 -3.2pp
– GDP deflator 3.7 3.9 -0.2pp
= Real GDP 1.4 4.4 -3.0pp
Contribution of subcomponents (pp)
Consumer spending 1.6 2.3 -0.7pp
Nonresidential fixed investment 0.5 0.4 0.1pp
Residential investment -0.1 -0.3 0.2pp
Change in private inventories 0.2 -0.1 0.3pp
Net exports 0.1 1.6 -1.5pp
Government spending -0.9 0.4 -1.3pp
Total real GDP growth 1.4 4.4 -3.0pp
Subcomponent growth rates (pp)
Consumption 2.4 3.5 -1.1pp
Investment 3.8 0.0 3.8pp
Exports -0.9 9.6 -10.5pp
Imports -1.3 -4.4 3.1pp
Government expenditures -5.1 2.2 -7.3pp


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Feb 26 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, January 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Feb 26 08:30 AM Monthly GDP Update, Q4 2025 Second Estimate Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mar 05 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update, January 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mar 06 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, February 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mar 06 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, March 2026 U.S. Treasury
Mar 11 08:30 AM Monthly Inflation Update, February 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics


Notes


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Treasury; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points

“Real” values are expressed in chained 2017 dollars.

Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.