First Quarter 2025, Second Estimate | Released May 29, 2025


From Q4 2024 to Q1 2025:

  • Real GDP decreased by 0.24 percent annualized.
  • Current-dollar nominal GDP increased by 3.45 percent annualized, or $252.774 billion, to a level of $29.977 trillion, the current size of the U.S. economy.




Revisions from the last estimate


  • Real GDP was revised upward by 0.03 percentage points annualized, or $1.962 billion.
  • Current-dollar nominal GDP was revised downward by 0.01 percentage points annualized, or $994.000 million.


Table 1. Gross domestic product

Q1 2025 Q4 2024 Chg. from Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Chg. from Q1 2024
Size of the U.S. Economy
Nominal GDP $29.977T $29.724T $252.774B $28.624T $1.353T
Real GDP $23.528T $23.542T -$14.302B $23.054T $474.502B


Table 2. Contributions to real gross domestic product growth

Q1 2025 Q4 2024 Chg. from Q4 2024
Quarterly growth rate, annualized (pp)
Nominal GDP 3.4 4.8 -1.4pp
– GDP deflator 3.6 2.3 1.3pp
= Real GDP -0.2 2.5 -2.7pp
Contribution of subcomponents (pp)
Consumer spending 0.8 2.7 -1.9pp
Nonresidential fixed investment 1.4 -0.4 1.8pp
Residential investment 0.0 0.2 -0.2pp
Change in private inventories 2.6 -0.8 3.4pp
Net exports -4.9 0.3 -5.2pp
Government spending -0.1 0.5 -0.6pp
Total real GDP growth -0.2 2.4 -2.6pp
Subcomponent growth rates (pp)
Consumption 1.2 4.0 -2.8pp
Investment 24.4 -5.6 30.0pp
Exports 2.4 -0.2 2.6pp
Imports 42.5 -1.9 44.4pp
Government expenditures -0.7 3.1 -3.8pp


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Jun 05 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update, April 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Jun 06 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, May 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jun 06 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, June 2025 U.S. Treasury
Jun 11 08:30 AM Monthly Inflation Update, May 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jun 12 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, May 2025 U.S. Treasury
Jun 24 10:00 AM State Employment Update, May 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jun 26 08:30 AM Monthly GDP Update, Q1 2025 Third Estimate Bureau of Economic Analysis
Jun 27 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, May 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis


Notes


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Treasury; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points

“Real” values are expressed in chained 2017 dollars.

Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.